If you ask me whether the market has moved up or down by this time next year, so it could flip a coin, because I do not know. If you ask me whether the market has moved up or down by this time next month, and again, it could flip a coin, because I still do not know. If you ask me whether the market has moved up or down by this time next week, again, might as well flip a coin, because I do not know. And if you ask me whether the market has moved up or down by this time tomorrow, I'm sorry, but I Sa NO! But? if you ask me if the market moves up or down in the next few minutes, so I'll have a definitive opinion. Why? Because if I can find the current status of buying and selling in the market now, then I can make a reasoned and fairly accurate estimate of what the market will do in the next few minutes and moments. My prediction is not based on a formula secret, not based on some measure of sound esoteric, or in a complex mathematical equation. No, my assessment is based on the current state of supply and demand.
Predicting long-term evolution of markets is a guessing game. All we have to follow is the past, all they reasonably can do is assume that what has happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future. Basically it is this trend, making the assumption that the past equals the future. In my world trade, the only law that works is the supply and demand: if there are more buyers than sellers, then the market will rise, and if there are more sellers than buyers in the market will fall. It does not matter one iota why buyers and sellers. Never mind that an operator has chosen to sell now, because the period moving average has crossed the 14 September period, or because you have lost your shirt, either by making a profit, or because it is simply boring. No, I do not care why a operator has entered into a buy or a sell order, only the care are, by his act, coupled with buying or selling pressure. Malcolm Robinson LIFFE Pit Trader & Electronic Trader